Varyag Returns From Sea Trials

China Defense Blog spotted these photos showing the Varyag returning on the 13th from 3 days of sea trials. The cruise ship in one of photos is the Chinese Navy's Life Style 88 crew support ship that sailed with the Varyag on the 10th when the Varyag left for sea trials.

Photo Credit: China Defense Blog

Taiwan Announces Hsiung Feng III Is For Sinking Chinese Carriers

     Defense News reports that Taiwan designed the Hsiung Feng III for attacking aircraft carriers, specifically the ones operated by China. 

      The painting above was displayed at the Taipei Aerospace and Defense Technology Exhibition showing the Varyag being hit by 3 Hsiung Feng 3 cruise missiles. This extremely unusual for the Taiwanese, as they usually don't explicitly say that China is the enemy. Thus, this drawing is essentially saying that Taiwan is not afraid of China, and that if attacked could inflict serious casulties on the Chinese.

     Another interesting aspect of this picture is that in the extreme left there is another ship which looks like an aircraft carrier, due to the fact that the superstructure is amidships, and on the port side, similar to an aircraft carrier. If this is an aircraft carrier, it appears to be of similar size to the Varyag, and possibly of the same design. There are reports that China is building at least 2 other carriers, with at least 2 more on the drawing board, as was mentioned here a few days ago.

     With the Varyag entering sea trials, it will be interesting to see how the Taiwanese react to having a Chinese aircraft carrier on their front door.

     

Photo Credit: Wall Street Journal, Wendell Minnick

Varyag Begins Sea Trials

     Defense news reports that the Varyag is beginning her sea trials.

     This a big milestone for Chinese sea power, as they will be able to hit targets farther away than before, and also be able to intimidate weaker countries. China Defense Blog also reported  that a no-fly zone is in effect off of China's coast where the Varyag will probably undergo her sea trials.

     One aspect of Varyag's sea trials is that will the U.S., Taiwan, or Japan launch reconnaissance flights over or near the Varyag's battle group? Will the U.S. send submarines to watch the sea trials? Other questions about the Varyag's sea trials are, how will the propulsion systems perform? Will the Chinese try to land aircraft on the Varyag? Will the Chinese test the Varyag's air defense systems against drones? Will the Chinese hold drills covering under way replenishment? 

     Either way you look at this, it is a milestone for the Chinese navy, but as I have said before the Varyag is not a large threat to the U.S..

     

Photo Credit: China Defense blog

Photos Show Z-8 Helicopter Flying Around The Varyag

     Alert 5 spotted these photos showing a Z-8 AEW (Airborne Early Warning) helicopter flying over the Varyag. It is unknown whether or not the Z-8 actually touched down.
      What is interesting about these photos is that the flight deck is cleared of construction equipment, and building supplies. Thus, it would seem that the Varyag is getting ready to sail.

Photo Credit: Alert 5

Smoke Coming From The Varyag's Funnel

     China Defense Blog spotted this photo showing a large amount of smoke coming from the Varyag's funnel.

     This is not the first time exhaust has been seen coming from the Varyag's funnel. Back in May China Defense Blog posted a photo showing heat waves coming from the Varyag's funnel.

     If these photos are authentic, then it shows that the Chinese are quickly getting the Varyag ready for sea trials.



Photo Credit: China Defense Blog

Varyag Powering Up

     China Defense Blog found these photos showing the Varyag with lights on. Defense Tech also noticed that in the photo with the white/yellow lights, there is a JBD (Jet Blast Deflector) in the raised position.

     This is not the first time the Chinese have shown signs that they are nearing the Varyag's sea trials. Back in May, photos emerged showing exhaust coming from the Varyag's funnel, and more recently there were photos showing constrution equipment being removd from the Varyag.

      All this points towards the Varyag being almost ready for sea trials, and then maybe some intimidation in the South China Sea.                                     

Photo Credit: China Defense Blog

New Information About The DF-21D

     Last week the Taipei Times, ran an article quoting Chinese Gen. Chen Bingde confirming the existence of the DF-21D, this would be the first time a Chinese official confirmed it's existence. 

     Further down in the article Chen Bingde stated that the DF-21D has a range of  of 2,700km, which is is almost twice as much as the estimate of 1,500km given by the Navy. Chen Bingde also stated that the DF-21D is still in the development stage and that such high-tech devices were difficult to bring to bring to maturity. Earlier this year the company which produces the DF-21D claimed that it would field a 4,000km IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile), along with that Chen Bingde stated that a 2,700km range is easy for them. 

     However, I am skeptical about a 2,700km range for the DF-21D because the Chinese have had problems with high-tech equipment (aircraft engines for example), and the fact that MARVs are not simple things to produce and are very complicated. On top of this the Chinese will be depending on a series of satellites to to feed information to the DF-21D, and satellites can be damaged by flashing lasers at them. Back during the Cold War the Soviets flashed lasers at the Space Shuttle, which caused some problems on the shuttle and discomfort for the crew.

     Overall, the DF-21D is an interesting question, but there still are many kinks to work out in the DF-21D, but, given time the DF-21D could mature into a threat.

Photo Credit: Wikipedia

Grainy Videos Showing Officials Touring The Varyag & The Varyag's Weapons Systems

     Alert 5 spotted these two videos showing a group of officials on the Varyag's deck, and below, a video showing a HQ-10 (FL-3000), a 10 barrel gatling gun, and an unidentified rocket launcher.

Here is the video showing the tour.

And here is the video showing the Varyag's weapons.

If you made the mistake of not turning the sound off for the first video, here is the real song.

Video Credit: Alert 5 & Hans Zimmer

Varyag: Is It A Threat?

     With all the talk that China will use the Varyag to rule the western Pacific, I would like to explain why the Varyag will NOT be a SERIOUS threat to the U.S. military or the U.S.'s interests in the region.

     First, the Chinese navy has no experience with carrier operations, specifically: operating cat and trap systems, landing aircraft on a moving surface, replenishing large ships while underway, and launching, arming, fueling, and repairing aircraft in heavy seas. On top of that all these shortcomings are aggravated during combat operations, as all activities will have to be done faster, at the same time with an increased degree of precision. 

     Second, the Varyag is of the Admiral Kuznetsov-class, and has a relatively small air wing of 26 fixed-wing aircraft (J-15, New AEW&C aircraft), and 24 helicopters (Ka-27), for a grand total of 50 aircraft. 50 aircraft is decent number for a second-tier military (Britain, France, Spain, etc...), but in a drawn out war with the U.S., 50 aircraft (of which less than half are fighters) will be nothing. Against 5+ American supercarriers, each carrying 100 aircraft, 50+ of which are fighters (not including aircraft from Japan, Guam, South Korea, and possibly the Philippines), 20 +/- fighters will be nothing. 

     Third, China has no escorts for the Varyag. One of the most important things needed to operate an aircraft carrier is destroyers for ASW (anti-submarine warfare) and air defense. You also need submarines to make sure no enemy submarines get close enough to take a shot at the Varyag or any of the escorts. China has both of these types of ships, but either in limited quantity or of lousy quality or both (China's nuclear submarines make enough underwater noise to make a U2 concert sound quiet). China does have diesel electric Kilo-class subs that are extremely quiet, but are too slow to escort a carrier task force. China also is beginning to build Type 052C destroyers which have a greater air defense capability than previous classes, and will probably form the backbone of Chinese carrier task forces.

     Fourth, the Chinese will need a much better supply system to keep the Varyag at sea for extended periods of time. As of June 2011 the Chinese navy has a rather limited at-sea supply system, which is essential for operating an aircraft carrier(s). 

     While the Varyag is the only aircraft carrier the Chinese have, it will not pose a serious threat to the U.S.military. However, the Chinese military has expressed interest in building more carriers, but until the Chinese are able to field 3+ carriers with large air wings, the Varyag will not pose a serious threat.

     

      

Aircraft Carriers: The Newest Trend In Deterrence

     The photo above is a picture of the USS Texas, which is literally the last dreadnought, and a distant cousin of today's aircraft carriers.
     When the dreadnought era began with the launching of the HMS Dreadnought, a massive arms race began with countries all over the world racing to build dreadnoughts, to either deter other countries from attacking them or to intimidate surrounding countries. The same goes for aircraft carriers to some extent, if you don't have an aircraft carrier(s) you are at risk of having distant territories taken (Britain & the Falklands) or being bullied by another country.
     However, aircraft carriers today are not as all-powerful as they were through the late 1940s to the mid 1960s before modern anti-ship missiles like the AS-4 "Kitchen" came into service. New threats to aircraft carriers continue to arise, such as anti-ship ballistic missiles like the DF-21D and ever quieter submarines (a similar situation was the advent of naval aviation and the threat to battleships). To further aggravate the problem is that navies like the U.S. Navy build ever larger carriers like the Gerald R. Ford-class, which concentrates the Navy's air power in 11 or so locations that every country with a space program knows.
     I am not saying aircraft carriers are obsolete, far from it. I am saying carriers are an integral part of a country's national security, but instead of large size and limited quantity, they must be of small size (30,000 to 70,000 tons), and a larger quantity (12-20 for the U.S.). Aircraft carriers that would be examples of this would be the Queen Elizabeth-class and the USS America (LHA-6), both of which are relatively small compared to American super carriers (72,000 & 45,000 long tons compared to 100,000+ long ton Nimitz-class carriers).
     With aircraft carriers continuing to increase in size, and new threats constantly appearing, it will be in the next 25 years that the aircraft carrier really and truly comes of age as a new Cold War begins in the Pacific Ocean, and the aircraft carrier shows what it can really do.
   


Photo Credit: Daniel Schwen

Varyag To Begin Sea Trials July 1st

     Defense News reports that the Chinese carrier Varyag will sail for sea trials on July 1st, but will not be officially launched until October 2012.

     With the increasing tensions in and around the Spratly Islands, the Varyag would be a powerful bargaining  tool, especially with countries like the Phillipines or Indonesia who have small and/or aging navies. However, Vietnam and Malaysia both have relatively large and new navies that if used with skill, could pose a threat to any Chinese forays into the Spratley Islands.

     With the Varyag close to sailing it will be interesting to see how other Asian countries react to the Varyag in the South China Sea.

New Photos Show Varyag's Starboard Side

     New photos of the Varyag's starboard side have just emerged, showing the aircraft elevator and the starboard side of the island.

Looks like there might be another 10 barrel gatling gun in the photo.

Photo Credit: Alert 5

New Photos Show Construction Equipment Being Removed From The Varyag

     The guys over at China Defense Blog spotted these photos showing construction equipment being removed from the Varyag (Shi Lang).

     With the Chinese finally acknowledging the existence of the Varyag and removing construction equipment from the flight deck, it looks like the Varyag is getting ready to sail. 

Photo Credit: China Defense Blog

China Admits What The West Already Knew: Yes, We Are Building An Aircraft Carrier

Well, its official, Defense News reports that General Chen Bingde (whom I have discussed before) admitted the existence of the Varyag (now known as the Shi Lang) along with the fact that they are overhauling it.
     Personally, I am surprised that China has not admitted the existence of the Varyag prior to yesterday as almost every defense enthusiast knows of the Varyag's existence and overhaul. I have written quite a bit about the Varyag (I can't bring myself to call it the Shi Lang), covering everything from the Varyag's weapon systems to the J-15.
     With the Chinese finally admitting that the Varyag exists, it's interesting to see that the Chinese military is similar to the Soviet military in that they both are and were extremely secretive.