Friday, June 17, 2011

Why The Libyan Rebels Can't Win The War

     With all the talk about the Libyan rebels beginning to win the civil war, I would like to explain why the rebels can't win the war.
     First, the rebels have no real chain of command, strategic or tactical. One of the most important things needed to win a war is a chain of command and a leader who can win. There is a so-called commander in chief (CINC) named Abdul Fatah Younis, but there is no real command structure above company sized units if any.
     Secondly, most of the rebels have little or no military training or discipline which is essential to have an effective military force. A military unit without training or discipline is at a serious disadvantage as evidenced by the numerous British victories during the American Revolution prior to to the stay at Valley Forge. Due to the fact that most of the rebels are former civilians they obviously would not have any military training.
     Thirdly, the rebels have an extremely disorganized distribution of weaponry. It has been reported that the rebels have had to use 100 year old Lee-Enfield and Mosin-Nagant  bolt-action rifles, not only those, but World War II-era Mauser K98 and Carcano bolt-action rifles. On top of this those weapons only scratch the surface of what the rebels are using, and the list goes on.
     Fourth, the rebels have no heavy weapons like tanks, armored personnel carriers or artillery. The rebels are reported to have a few T-55 main battle tanks (MBTs), but have not used them en masse. The rebels are also reported to have small amounts of Type 63 and other types of rocket artillery, but no real artillery. But until the rebels can deploy armored vehicles and true artillery in sufficient numbers to support their infantry, their ability to fight Gaddafi's military is severely impaired.
     The reasons I have just listed above are vital to the rebels winning the war, and until they can fix these problems their chances of beating Gaddafi are slim at best.

Photo Credit: Voice Of America

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