DF-41 Back From The Dead?

    China Defense Blog posted this photo showing an unidentified Chinese missile being carried on a WS-9000 commercial truck chassis. Defense Tech suggested that this might be a DF-31, but he pointed out it is much to small to be a DF-31. However, there are couple of other possibilities, 1) It could be a DF-41, 2) It could be a DF-16, or 3) something new.

     Personally, my first thought is that this is a DF-41. The DF-41 program was started in 1986, and was supposedly canceled 2002. However, no one really knows what has happened to the program, and it is entirely possible that it is still going strong. Also, the DF-41 was reported to be silo-based and road mobile, which could make this a DF-41. 

      As to the possibility that this might be a DF-16, this is probably the most debatable as no one actually knows anything about the DF-16 is, if it is in the first place road mobile, and the dimensions. All that is known about the DF-16 is that is an IRBM with a range of 4,000km, and that it is in development. As to the possibility that this is an entirely new missile, it is either an ICBM or an IRBM, obviously road mobile, has length of at least 20m, besides that there is not much else one can tell from this photo.

      It will be interesting to see over the spring and summer to find out whether or not this is a DF-16, -41, or an entirely new system.

New Information About The DF-21D

     Last week the Taipei Times, ran an article quoting Chinese Gen. Chen Bingde confirming the existence of the DF-21D, this would be the first time a Chinese official confirmed it's existence. 

     Further down in the article Chen Bingde stated that the DF-21D has a range of  of 2,700km, which is is almost twice as much as the estimate of 1,500km given by the Navy. Chen Bingde also stated that the DF-21D is still in the development stage and that such high-tech devices were difficult to bring to bring to maturity. Earlier this year the company which produces the DF-21D claimed that it would field a 4,000km IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile), along with that Chen Bingde stated that a 2,700km range is easy for them. 

     However, I am skeptical about a 2,700km range for the DF-21D because the Chinese have had problems with high-tech equipment (aircraft engines for example), and the fact that MARVs are not simple things to produce and are very complicated. On top of this the Chinese will be depending on a series of satellites to to feed information to the DF-21D, and satellites can be damaged by flashing lasers at them. Back during the Cold War the Soviets flashed lasers at the Space Shuttle, which caused some problems on the shuttle and discomfort for the crew.

     Overall, the DF-21D is an interesting question, but there still are many kinks to work out in the DF-21D, but, given time the DF-21D could mature into a threat.

Photo Credit: Wikipedia

China vs. Taiwan Update

Since the Nationalist forces pulled out of mainland China in 1949 the Communist and Nationalist China's have been at each others throats. In the last 15 years this not so friendly rivalry has been intensifying, I have covered some of China's recent actions as seen in "Chengdu J-20: Carrier Killer?", "DF-21D: Is It a Threat?" and "Chinese Naval Aviation Update" with all the coverage going to the "People's" (read communist) Republic of China, I have yet to cover any of the Republic of China's (Taiwan) recent moves.
     In the past few months Taiwan's president Ma Ying-Jeou has urged the U.S. to allow Taiwan to purchase more F-16C/D Block 50/52 Falcons and to allow upgrades to Taiwan's existing F-16A/B Block 20 fleet. President Ma says that these purchases would allow Taiwan to negotiate with the PRC on an equal footing. One of the reasons used to explain the delay in this purchase is that the PRC would retaliate economically if we did so (they hold 1+ trillion dollars of our dept courtesy of the politicians in D.C.). At the same time the Taiwanese have built a homegrown fighter that looks like a cross between an F/A-18 and an F-16.
     Moving on to the world of air defense, the Taiwanese held a drill back in January to test the effectiveness of their I-Hawk surface-to-air missile systems but, 5 out of 19 missiles missed (roughly 25%). Because so many missiles were off target there is speculation that the test will score Taiwan some new American-made surface-to-air missiles, like more MIM-104 Patriot batteries, maybe some MEADS units if and/or when the U.S. reenters the program.
     China in the last 10 years has been rapidly expanding it's navy from a coastal defense fleet to a true blue water navy capable of competing with the U.S. and other countries on the high seas. To answer this threat Taiwan recently fielded the Hsiung Feng III or Brave Wind anti-ship missile on it's warships and, possibly on mobile land launchers as well. The Hsiung Feng III is reported to have a range of 300km, enough to reach mainland China and, a warhead which is rumored to be in the 225kg range. On top of this Taiwan has said that it plans to build a "stealth" warship that will be armed with 8 Hsiung Feng III missiles and 8 Hsiung Feng II missiles. On top of this Taiwan in the last 6 months has added at least 2 frigates and 10 new missile boats to it's naval forces.
     Last, but by no means least is the news that Taiwan has developed an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile capable of reaching Beijing. Taiwan has not said if the IRBM is nuclear capable though it probably is not nuclear capable and more likely is meant as a deterrent to show the PRC that Taiwan can hurt them. 
     With the ROC (Taiwan) and the PRC (mainland China) both rapidly building up their military's it is almost inevitable that in the next 20 years there will be a clash between the two nations. When this war begins it is almost certain the U.S. will pulled into the war and will at some point lose an aircraft carrier and multiple surface ships. In the present situation there is no real solution that will appease both sides, in this situation there is only one path to take if you wish to remain free, deterrence. Taiwan has up to this point denied having any nuclear, biological or chemical weapons while the PRC has all of these weapons in large quantities and the necessary delivery systems for these weapons. Taiwan must either engage in a massive build up of it's conventional forces or begin a clandestine nuclear weapons program similar to the early Israeli nuclear program. Whatever the ROC does it must do quickly because the U.S. is moving farther and farther away from Taiwan and more and more towards the PRC and will soon not support Taiwan as we have in previous decades.   


   
Photo Credit: CIA

DF-21D: Is It A Threat?

Recently there has been a lot of talk about China's new DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) and, that it is a threat to US naval forces throughout the Pacific Ocean. However the Chinese have had many problems with high-end technology as evidenced by their lack of a modern AWACS aircraft and the fact that they have had a multitude of problems in developing indigenous weapon systems, without copying another countries systems with no licence 

     The missile system that the DF-21D is based off of is the DF-21, (DF standing for DongFeng). The DF-21 is an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) capable of ranges between 1700-3000 kilometers depending on the variant. The DF-21's NATO designation is CSS-6 with the DF-21's variants having Mod 1-4. The DF-21 series has been in service since the early 1990s but, only now has turned into a real threat.   

     The method in which the Chinese have turned the DF-21D into a threat is through maneuverable reentry vehicles or MARVs. The difference between conventional multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle or MIRVs and MARVs is that a MARV is capable of inflight maneuvers thus, posing a greater challenge to anti-ballistic missile systems like the Aegis BMD system (Ballistic Missile Defense). One of the reasons ASBMs are not usually used by most countries armed forces is that ASBMs are extremly complicated. Imagine firing a model rocket at a moving bullseye 2-3cm wide and a meter long, 350m away and hitting the bullseye. This is probably not the best analogy but, it shows the challenges involed with this type of weapon system. In fact ASBMs are so complicated that the Soviet Union developed a sub fired ASBM designated the SS-NX-13 but, a couple of years later gave up on the system. 

     This is just an observers opinion but, given time the DF-21D could possibly develop into a threat.