New Information About The DF-21D

     Last week the Taipei Times, ran an article quoting Chinese Gen. Chen Bingde confirming the existence of the DF-21D, this would be the first time a Chinese official confirmed it's existence. 

     Further down in the article Chen Bingde stated that the DF-21D has a range of  of 2,700km, which is is almost twice as much as the estimate of 1,500km given by the Navy. Chen Bingde also stated that the DF-21D is still in the development stage and that such high-tech devices were difficult to bring to bring to maturity. Earlier this year the company which produces the DF-21D claimed that it would field a 4,000km IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile), along with that Chen Bingde stated that a 2,700km range is easy for them. 

     However, I am skeptical about a 2,700km range for the DF-21D because the Chinese have had problems with high-tech equipment (aircraft engines for example), and the fact that MARVs are not simple things to produce and are very complicated. On top of this the Chinese will be depending on a series of satellites to to feed information to the DF-21D, and satellites can be damaged by flashing lasers at them. Back during the Cold War the Soviets flashed lasers at the Space Shuttle, which caused some problems on the shuttle and discomfort for the crew.

     Overall, the DF-21D is an interesting question, but there still are many kinks to work out in the DF-21D, but, given time the DF-21D could mature into a threat.

Photo Credit: Wikipedia

Aircraft Carriers: The Newest Trend In Deterrence

     The photo above is a picture of the USS Texas, which is literally the last dreadnought, and a distant cousin of today's aircraft carriers.
     When the dreadnought era began with the launching of the HMS Dreadnought, a massive arms race began with countries all over the world racing to build dreadnoughts, to either deter other countries from attacking them or to intimidate surrounding countries. The same goes for aircraft carriers to some extent, if you don't have an aircraft carrier(s) you are at risk of having distant territories taken (Britain & the Falklands) or being bullied by another country.
     However, aircraft carriers today are not as all-powerful as they were through the late 1940s to the mid 1960s before modern anti-ship missiles like the AS-4 "Kitchen" came into service. New threats to aircraft carriers continue to arise, such as anti-ship ballistic missiles like the DF-21D and ever quieter submarines (a similar situation was the advent of naval aviation and the threat to battleships). To further aggravate the problem is that navies like the U.S. Navy build ever larger carriers like the Gerald R. Ford-class, which concentrates the Navy's air power in 11 or so locations that every country with a space program knows.
     I am not saying aircraft carriers are obsolete, far from it. I am saying carriers are an integral part of a country's national security, but instead of large size and limited quantity, they must be of small size (30,000 to 70,000 tons), and a larger quantity (12-20 for the U.S.). Aircraft carriers that would be examples of this would be the Queen Elizabeth-class and the USS America (LHA-6), both of which are relatively small compared to American super carriers (72,000 & 45,000 long tons compared to 100,000+ long ton Nimitz-class carriers).
     With aircraft carriers continuing to increase in size, and new threats constantly appearing, it will be in the next 25 years that the aircraft carrier really and truly comes of age as a new Cold War begins in the Pacific Ocean, and the aircraft carrier shows what it can really do.
   


Photo Credit: Daniel Schwen

DF-21D: Is It A Threat?

Recently there has been a lot of talk about China's new DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) and, that it is a threat to US naval forces throughout the Pacific Ocean. However the Chinese have had many problems with high-end technology as evidenced by their lack of a modern AWACS aircraft and the fact that they have had a multitude of problems in developing indigenous weapon systems, without copying another countries systems with no licence 

     The missile system that the DF-21D is based off of is the DF-21, (DF standing for DongFeng). The DF-21 is an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) capable of ranges between 1700-3000 kilometers depending on the variant. The DF-21's NATO designation is CSS-6 with the DF-21's variants having Mod 1-4. The DF-21 series has been in service since the early 1990s but, only now has turned into a real threat.   

     The method in which the Chinese have turned the DF-21D into a threat is through maneuverable reentry vehicles or MARVs. The difference between conventional multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle or MIRVs and MARVs is that a MARV is capable of inflight maneuvers thus, posing a greater challenge to anti-ballistic missile systems like the Aegis BMD system (Ballistic Missile Defense). One of the reasons ASBMs are not usually used by most countries armed forces is that ASBMs are extremly complicated. Imagine firing a model rocket at a moving bullseye 2-3cm wide and a meter long, 350m away and hitting the bullseye. This is probably not the best analogy but, it shows the challenges involed with this type of weapon system. In fact ASBMs are so complicated that the Soviet Union developed a sub fired ASBM designated the SS-NX-13 but, a couple of years later gave up on the system. 

     This is just an observers opinion but, given time the DF-21D could possibly develop into a threat.