Happy 2013! War in the Spratleys

From Strategy Page:

     The Chinese announcement that it would begin enforcing new rules, starting January 1st, that will have Chinese naval patrols escorting, or expelling, foreign ships from most of the South China Sea has mobilized a lot of resistance. This should not be surprising as the new rules include offshore areas of the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei, and Vietnam that international law does not recognize as Chinese. India and the United States have both announced that they will not obey and that Indian and American warships expect to move unmolested through the South China Sea in 2013.

     China had issued new passports (since last May) which had the new map of China showing the South China Sea as Chinese territory and part of India as part of China. This was ignored until the recent announcement that the Chinese navy would threaten or harass foreign ships in parts of the South China Sea claimed by China. The Philippines and Vietnam have refused to recognize this passport. India is stamping visas for Chinese with the Indian version of the map. Filipinos are also angry at how China has reneged on its agreement to withdraw its warships from Scarborough Shoal (which, according to international law, is Filipino). Both countries agreed to withdraw their warships from the shoal but three Chinese ships remain. The Chinese keep offering excuses of why the ships are still there and the ships show no sign of leaving.

     Not good, the South China Sea has been a powder keg for years, and China continues to piss off her neighbors. In the last few years we've seen a U.S. naval research harassed by Chinese fishermen, ChiComm frigates patrolling Scarborough Shoal, the ChiComms questioning a Indian naval vessel why she was in the South China Sea, amongst other provocative actions. Now we have China showing part of India as China, this isn't new, there have been territorial disputes between China and India since the '60s over parts of the Himalayas, but this is going to ruffle some serious feathers in New Delhi. With Sparky in office and no one in south Asia capable of beating China in a shooting war, this is going to be heck of a ride. A big chunk of Japan and South Korea's oil passes through the area, not to mention the fishing done by Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines in the area. Come 1/1/13 it's going to be interesting to see what happens, because if the U.S. does not come to the aid of our allies in the area, it will show the world the U.S. doesn't have the balls to stand up to her adversaries.

Photo: Vietnam's First Kilo

Hat tip to Asian Defense for spotting this.

China Claims +90% Of The South China Sea

     From Strategy Page:

August 7, 2012: China recently declared that most of the 3.5 million square kilometers South China Sea had become Sansha, the latest Chinese city. The area China claims is within the city limits comprises over two million square kilometers of largely open ocean and a few hundred tiny islands and reefs, many of which are only above water during low tide. Sansha is administered from one of the Paracel islands (Woody Island). The U.S. government responded by asking that China obey international law. China currently claims South China Sea areas close to neighboring nations, except for areas about 22 kilometers from the coast. International law gives all nations control over fishingand oil drilling 380 kilometers off their coasts. China refuses to obey this rule (which it had once agreed to). In response to the American reminder, the Chinese called the U.S. a trouble maker. China is not backing down.

For over three decades China has been using a gradual strategy that involves first leaving buoys (for navigation purposes, to assist Chinese fishermen), followed by temporary shelters (again, for the Chinese fishermen) on islets or reefs that are above water but otherwise uninhabited. If none of the other claimants to this piece of ocean remove the buoys or shelters, China builds a more permanent structure to aid passing Chinese fishermen. This shelter will be staffed by military personnel who will, of course, have radio, radar, and a few weapons. If no one attacks this mini-base China will expand it and warn anyone in the area that the base is Chinese territory and any attempts to remove it will be seen as an act of war. The Vietnamese tried to get physical against these Chinese bases in 1974 and 1988 and were defeated both times.

In 1995, China built one of these mini-bases 114 kilometers from the Filipino island of Palawan on Mischief Reef. Earlier buoys and a temporary structure had been removed by Filipino sailors. But in 1995, while the Philippines had suspended air and naval patrols of the area because of a nearby typhoon (Pacific hurricane), the Chinese rushed in and built a permanent base, on stilts, on the reef. China told the Philippines they would defend this one, and the Philippines found that their American ally was reluctant to go to war over a small structure on stilts on Mischief Reef. Four years later the Chinese expanded the Mischief Reef stilt structure and now it was obviously a military base. The Philippines protested and China ignored that. Now the Philippines is drilling for oil off Palawan and Chinese is using this "base" as the basis for declaring the drilling operations illegal. China has threatened to use force against oil companies that dare drill in their territorial waters without permission.

This is part of a strategy based on the ancient principle that, when it comes to real estate, "possession is 9/10ths of the law." It's the law of the jungle because all the claimants are armed and making it clear that, at some point down the road, force will be used to enforce claims. With the establishment of Sansha City, China is saying the next time anyone does anything China does not like within the city limits it could be war, because a government has to defend its sovereign territory.

     That is not gonna go over well in the capitols of Vietnam, Philippines, and the U.S.. There is a war brewing down there, and China is playing with fire, next to a powder keg.

Russia Denies Report Of Naval Base Negotiations

     From Defense News:

MOSCOW — The Russian defence ministry on July 27 denied it was holding negotiations about opening military installations in Cuba, Vietnam and the Seychelles, dismissing as “fantasy” media reports saying as much.

The denial came after Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency quoted Vice Adm. Viktor Chirkov, the commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy, as saying Russia was working on the deployment of overseas naval bases.

But late July 27, the Defence Ministry said in a statement that Chirkov made no official declaration on the subject.

“Questions concerning relations between nations are not within the jurisdiction of the Russian naval command so should not be presented to the media in that way,” the ministry said. “The appearance of such information in the media is merely the fantasy of (the media) which has opted for sensation over professional ethics.”

     I think there are two possibilities here, 1) a certain admiral got too big for his britches, and ran his mouth off on something classified, or 2) Chirkov was just trying to get media attention, and was lying. 

Russia In Negotiations For A Naval Base In Cuba Or Vietnam

     From Rueters:

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia hopes to establish its first naval base abroad since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union and is looking at Cuba, Vietnam and the Seychelles as possible locations, state-runRIA news agency quoted the navy chief as saying on Friday.

Russia has been increasing the reach of its navy in recent years, sending warships further afield as part of an effort to restore pride project power in a world dominated by the U.S. military.

"It's true that we are continuing work on providing the navy with basing outside the Russian Federation," RIA quoted Vice Admiral Viktor Chirkov as saying in an interview.

The Soviet Union had a large naval base in Communist ally Vietnam but post-Soviet Russia opted to vacate the Cam Ranh base in 2002, during President Vladimir Putin's first Kremlin term, because rent payments were a burden on state coffers.

The fate of Russia's only naval facility outside the former Soviet Union, a maintenance and supply facility in the Syrian port of Tartous, is uncertain because of the conflict in Syria.

Chirkov said Russia was "working out the issue of creating sites for material and technical support on the territory of Cuba, the Seychelles and Vietnam," RIA reported.

     Currently, the Russian Navy is rusting away, as most of their ships date from the days of the Soviet Union. The only real problem I can see with Russia establishing a naval base in Cuba is if they base nuclear weapons there. As to Vietnam and the Seychelles, not to big of an issue there.

China Starting "Combat ready" Patrols In South China Sea

    From Aviation Week:

China has begun combat-ready patrols in the waters around a disputed group of islands in the South China Sea, the Defence Ministry said on Thursday, the latest escalation in tensions over the potentially resource-rich area.

Asked about what China would do in response to Vietnamese air patrols over the Spratly Islands, the ministry’s spokesman Geng Yansheng said Beijing would “resolutely oppose any militarily provocative behavior”.

“In order to protect national sovereignty and our security and development interests, the Chinese military has already set up a normal, combat-ready patrol system in seas under our control,” he said.

“The Chinese military’s resolve and will to defend territorial sovereignty and protect our maritime rights and interests is firm and unshakeable,” Geng added, according to a transcript posted on the ministry’s website (www.mod.gov.cn).

     I've posted before about the situation in the South China Sea, but this is the first that has come out about China beginning "combat ready" patrols in the area. One question I have is what does "combat ready" mean?

China has had warships in the South China Sea regularly for decades, so does "combat ready" imply that they will be arming commercial vessels to protect their claims in the area? 

Photo Credit: NavWeaps